Title: American Policy And China

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The most fundamental U.S. interest in the region is the prevention of Chinese hegemony. For the present, the United States is the pre--eminent military power in East Asia. Assuming we do not alter our current deployment plans, this will remain the case for at least ten years. But a long-term perspective is wanted, one which recognizes our declining relative power and Chinese ascendance. In the long run, keeping China in check will require balance of power diplomacy. If we have an interest in containing China, most of the states in the region have a greater interest, more immediate and pressing. We will not, however, be able to form an alliance based on our moral differences with China.

Japan, our closest ally in the region and its most democratic state, takes a much softer line on questions of Chinese policy on human rights and other moral issues than we do. The question is not wither we ought to maintain our principles, but how best to do so while keeping a broader conception of our national interest in mind. Disrupting Sino--American relations over moral issues risks inciting a new Cold War, one in which America would have much less supportive allies. The United States must demonstrate strategic threats to the nations of the Pacific Rim if it hopes to marshal their support for a Cold War type containment policy.

Hopefully such a policy will be unnecessary. The best way to make it so is by encouraging liberalization. This means, first of all, continued economic engagement, from which follows increased wealth, greater dispersion of power within Chinese society, social changes, and political liberalization.

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